Weather dicey for planned SpaceX launch of European satellite

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 1, 2025

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SpaceX has more than a two-hour window Monday evening to try to launch a European satellite, but weather may not cooperate.

A Falcon 9 on the MTGS1 mission carrying the second of EUMETSAT’s third generation of weather satellites is targeting liftoff during a 150-minute launch window that opens at 5:04 p.m. from Kennedy Space Center Launch Pad 39-A. A backup opportunity Wednesday has the same launch window.

Weather isn’t great for either option, though. Space Launch Delta 45’s weather squadron forecasts only a 20% chance for good conditions on Tuesday, which falls to 10% on Wednesday. Both days have a high chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

“It appears likely thunderstorm activity will peak during the launch windows and there may only be brief periods where weather conditions are favorable,” the SLD45 forecast said. “There is a slightly higher chance of violations on the backup day as a trough of low pressure begins to develop in the Gulf, deepening moisture across the peninsula resulting in higher coverage of showers and storms.”

If it does launch, it will be the ninth flight of the first-stage booster, which also flew two human spaceflights — Crew-9 and Fram2 — as well as the Firefly Blue Ghost Mission 1 that sent a successful lander to the moon. It will aim for a recovery landing downrange on the droneship Just Read the Instructions stationed in the Atlantic.

The European satellite aims to sample the atmosphere at hyperspectral resolution with an infrared sounder that will look at temperature and humidity profiles.

Also on board is European Union’s Copernicus Sentinel-4 mission, which aims to monitor key air quality trace gases and aerosols over Europe.

This would be the 57th launch from the Space Coast for 2025, with all but three coming from SpaceX.

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