U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Russia would risk complicating relations with two nations crucial to his economic and strategic goals: China and India.

Trump on Monday threatened tariffs of about 100% on Russia unless it reached a peace deal with Ukraine in the next 50 days, saying the levies would come in the form of “secondary tariffs.”

Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, later said the planned action effectively represents secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Russia. “It’s about tariffs on countries like India and China that are buying their oil,” he told reporters.

Global markets — increasingly skeptical of Trump’s near-daily tariff threats — largely shrugged off the news, suggesting there’s little concern around any potential impact to crude flows. Trade analysts said the proposed levies would be difficult to police and, if implemented, could well backfire on the U.S.

“It remains unclear how exactly you would do this, and how China or anyone would certify that they’re meeting the U.S. requirement,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore. “It’s going to add more fuel to the fire of why these countries are skeptical of receiving a deal from Trump.”

Trump’s latest threat comes at a crucial time in negotiations with both Asian nations.

India is closing in on an agreement that would see 20% so-called reciprocal levies on the South Asian nation before a final deal is reached in the fall. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has struck a more defiant stance with the U.S. in recent weeks as frustration with Trump has grown.

Officials in New Delhi said Tuesday it’s unclear whether Trump will follow through with his threat or how it will be implemented if he did. Penalizing entities that trade with or buy Russian crude will be difficult to implement and may have unintended consequences, they said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private.

New Delhi sees the tariff threat as mostly targeted toward China, a major buyer of Russian energy, rather than India, the officials said. They view India’s ongoing trade negotiations and close ties with the U.S. as helping to shelter the country from any punitive measures, they said.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t respond to an email seeking further information.

Xi-Trump meeting

U.S. ties with China, meanwhile, appear on the upswing after the world’s two largest economies reached a trade truce in May.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week said a meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping was likely for later this year. And on Monday, Nvidia Corp. said the U.S. would allow the resumption of sales of its H20 AI chip to China — the biggest sign yet that the White House is easing export controls on Beijing in return for rare-earth minerals needed to make a range of high-tech products.

“Despite the temporary truce in the trade war between China and the U.S., there’s still a lot uncertainties on other fronts,” said Zhu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies. “A secondary tariff will bring even more chaos and China will surely respond forcefully.”

India became a major importer of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and China’s imports have also climbed over the same period. Washington policymakers view those stepped-up oil purchases as a form of tacit support for Russia that helps buoy the nation’s economy and weakens the impact of sanctions.

“Any major threat to China’s energy security could create new frictions in the fragile trade truce between the world’s top two economies,” said William Yang, International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Northeast Asia.

Secondary levies that threaten India’s access to cheap oil could also further erode ties between Trump and Modi.

“Whatever little trust and goodwill is left in the U.S. president will soon get dissipated if the U.S. keeps pushing its arbitrary actions related to tariffs,” said Abhijit Das, international trade policy expert in Delhi. As a part of its trade talks, India should demand that the U.S. avoid such arbitrary tariffs, Das said.

Trump’s latest salvo come as countries deepen their trade and diplomatic relations in the face of U.S. policy volatility.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in Beijing this week, where he met China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, and was also received by Xi, who said the two nations should deepen “comprehensive strategic cooperation.”

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held talks with his Chinese counterpart on Monday during his first visit in more than five years, as the Asian neighbors strive to repair relations strained by the deadly 2020 border clashes. Jaishankar met with Xi on Tuesday.

“All these tariff threats are indeed working to bring the BRICS together,” said Amitendu Palit, senior research fellow and research lead on trade and economics at the Institute of South Asian Studies.

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—With assistance from Jing Li, Sarah Chen, Serene Cheong, Shruti Srivastava and Ruchi Bhatia.

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