FRESNO, Calif. — A new study from the University of California, Merced Community and Labor Center reports a disruptive decline in private sector work in California since the start of federal immigration enforcement activity.

The data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey for the weeks of May 11 and June 8 shows that the period of heightened federal immigration enforcement activity in Los Angeles coincided with a 3.1% drop in the number of Californians reporting private sector employment. The study pulled from a sampling of 5,000 households in California.

Overall, the number of people employed in the private sector dropped from 15.2 million in May to 14.8 million in June, a loss of 465,000 jobs.

“There’s only been one month in which the unemployment rate has been greater than this 3.1% drop since 1976. That was the first full month of pandemic lockdowns,” said Edward Flores, a faculty director for the UC Merced Community and Labor Center. “Fundamentally what this data helps us understand is that we do exist in relation to each other and federal enforcement actions don’t just happen in a vacuum.”

Unlike the unemployment rate, however, Flores said the study also accounted for contractors and subcontractors, such as day laborers — many of whom are undocumented.

Flores said only two events in the past 50 years — the Great Recession and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — have been associated with similar or greater declines in work. The greatest decline in jobs was seen among U.S. citizens, with non-citizens and women experiencing the highest rates of decline.

“It’s hard to point to anything else that had as visible an impact on employment as the federal immigration enforcement during the week of June 8,” Flores said. “There were anecdotal reports in the media about people not showing up to work, about businesses losing customers. Previous research has shown that during mass repatriations of immigrants — and even U.S. citizens of Mexican descent — not only did immigrants lose jobs, but citizens did too, due to the overall decline in economic activity.”

For the Fresno area, the unemployment rate rose to 8.5% in June 2025, up from 7.8% the month before and higher than the same time last year, according to the Employment Development Department of California. That’s significantly above the statewide rate of 5.7% and the national rate of 4.4%. Fresno County’s unemployment rate was 8.6% while Madera County’s was 8%.

Between May and June, the region lost about 100 jobs overall. Non-farm jobs, like those in offices, schools, and stores dropped by 500, while farm jobs increased by 400. However, over the past year overall, farming and hospitality employment has declined.

Construction had the biggest job growth for the month between May and June, adding 500 positions. Smaller gains were seen in manufacturing and finance. At the same time, jobs were lost in government, business services, health care, and other service-related industries.

Over the past year, the Fresno area added 7,200 jobs — a 1.4% increase. Most of that growth came from health care and education, which together added over 5,000 jobs.

For the state, the UC Merced report found that women were disproportionately impacted by the decline in private sector employment.

“Women concentrate much more in service occupations than men do, which has been widely documented in the media as being affected by declines in consumption. If fewer people are going out shopping, that’s less work in the retail sector, that’s less of a need for workers in that industry,” Flores said.

The decline in private sector work among women who are non-citizens was 8.6% compared to men which was 6.5%, Flores said.

“Given the moment we’re witnessing, the type of decline in private sector work in California, policymakers will need to face what to do about this crisis. Federal immigration enforcement actions are creating challenges for people to work and it’s going to be challenging for policymakers to devise solutions given the complexity of this problem.”

In past crises, such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, the report notes that the federal response included large-scale economic stimulus and disaster relief spending. This time, however, we’re not seeing a comparable level of action.

According to Flores, one policy that could make a meaningful difference in California would be expanding the unemployment benefits system to include undocumented workers.

“We don’t have an unemployment benefits system for undocumented immigrants in California. When they work, employers do pay taxes on their behalf. But unfortunately, they cannot access those benefits. It’s only since 1976 that has been the case,” Flores said. “It was only when the racial makeup of immigrants in this country shifted to Brown people from the global south that then suddenly federal lawmakers said we cannot permit them to access this benefit, even though they do pay taxes and employers pay on their behalf.”

In 2022 and 2024, the California State Assembly and Senate passed Senate Bill 227 (SB 227), which would have extended unemployment benefits to undocumented workers. However, Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed the legislation both times.

The study suggests that state lawmakers may need to consider designing plans for economic stimulus and disaster response in response to escalations in federal immigration enforcement actions.

“I think it’d be wise for lawmakers to consider both economic stimulus and disaster relief. When people who are low-income spend money they spend it on things that are needed. They shop at the local store and buy things like milk and items for children and so that creates a domino effect and further stimulates the economy in these low income areas that might otherwise be suffering a slowdown,” Flores said.

©2025 The Fresno Bee. Visit at fresnobee.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.