Despite a quiet start, forecasters still predict an active hurricane season ahead

Alex Harris, Miami Herald on Aug 7, 2025

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A relatively slow start to this hurricane season does not mean all clear for the months ahead.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its mid-season update to its forecast for the 2025 hurricane season, and the agency is holding steady to its prediction of an above-average season.

In May, NOAA said the upcoming season was likely to spawn 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 of which could strengthen into hurricanes and three to five of which could develop into major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher.

On Thursday, the agency said it expects to see 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes before the official end of the season on November 30.

That count includes the four tropical storms that have already occurred this season, the latest of which was Tropical Storm Dexter. As of Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said Dexter is now a post-tropical cyclone on a track far east, away from land.

NOAA still calls for an above-average season, due to warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, which helps strengthen storms, and an active West African Monsoon, which creates more tropical waves that can develop into storms.

“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” wrote Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service, in a statement.

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