Mexico's big cartel win also risks more violence ahead

The killing of “El Mencho,” one of Mexico’s most wanted drug lords, risks being both a blessing and curse for President Claudia Sheinbaum.

It was a political win both at home and abroad, and the clearest sign yet that she had stepped out of her predecessor’s shadow with a major assault on one of the most heavily armed drug-trafficking organizations in the nation. But as Sunday’s videos of the ensuing car burnings and highway blockades showed, it could also lead to a further destabilization of the country’s already fragile security.

Though great for official photo ops and fodder for Hollywood scripts, experts say that ridding an illicit group of its leader doesn’t necessarily curb its grip on the nation. Instead, it risks creating power vacuums that inevitably lead to more violence. Others worry that the chase distracts from the problems of disappearances and homicides that the country of roughly 130 million copes with each day.

“The kingpin strategy nets short term gains,” said Gladys McCormick, a security expert at Syracuse University. “It’s very effective at getting a dopamine hit of ‘we’re doing something against cartels,’ but as soon as next week we could see a splintering effect that comes into play.”

Sheinbaum is straying from the precepts of the former president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose popularity helped bring her to power after she was Mexico City’s mayor. His passive strategy allowed the cartels that Mexican governments have long reckoned with — and sometimes illicitly become involved with — to increase their control over large swaths of the country. They also diversified their businesses well beyond drugs and deeper into fuel theft, extortion and mining.

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is very much emblematic of that trend. It has become more visibly powerful in recent years, flaunting heavily armored cars and employing drone attacks. Its franchise model allowed for its quick expansion to over 40 countries across the globe, according to the U.S. Some researchers estimate criminal groups are now among Mexico’s main employers.

“This was the last nail in the coffin of the ‘hugs, not bullets’ strategy,” McCormick said, referring to Lopez Obrador’s strategy of tending to the root causes of criminal activity and cartels’ ability to recruit young people.

On top of the looming threat of further violence, Sheinbaum still has to contend with President Donald Trump, who has time and time again offered U.S. military might to help Mexico take a more decisive approach to criminal organizations. Even after initial praise for the operation to take out “El Mencho” on Sunday, Sheinbaum’s northern counterpart said Mexico needed to “step up.”

“The U.S. is going to keep making demands, but there has to be a different strategy,” said Catalina Pérez Correa, a drug policy researcher in Mexico City. “They detain the leaders, but that doesn’t change the conditions that create financial gains for criminal organization.” Cutting off their source of funds is key to seeing real results, she said.

Violent enterprise

The growth of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel is very much a story of how Mexico’s criminal groups armed up and proliferated in the face of an ineffective and violent two-decade military crackdown.

Oseguera, who was deported from the U.S. after serving time on drug charges in the 1990s, founded the Jalisco cartel around 15 years ago when a power vacuum emerged after the leader of another Mexican cartel was killed.

CJNG, the Spanish acronym it’s known by, turned into a major supplier of fentanyl, meth and cocaine to U.S. markets. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration said a small group of top commanders reported directly to Oseguera, who used the billions in profits to help increase the cartel’s global footprint and took control of major Pacific Coast ports.

CJNG “swiftly and violently” became one of the most powerful transnational criminal organizations in Mexico and the world, according to a report led by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. “CJNG is an organized criminal security threat unlike others experienced before,” the report said.

In 2015, the cartel shot down a military helicopter that was part of an operation to try to capture “El Mencho.” In 2020, the group killed Jalisco’s former governor while out to dinner, and killed 13 policemen in an ambush in 2019.

Last year, the discovery of human remains at a Jalisco ranch used by CJNG led to an outcry about the government turning a blind eye. Sheinbaum has promised that she’s taking a multi-pronged approach to security, and touted the arrest of a mayor from her own party earlier this year as a sign nobody would be spared.

Those who say it’s risky to remove a cartel leader, especially one of Oseguera’s stature, point to what happened in Sinaloa State as proof that ramifications can take months if not years to be resolved.

The detention of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada — a leader of a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel — in 2024 unleashed a deadly cartel war that has left over 2,400 dead and has aggressively upended the daily life of a million residents and businesses across the eponymous western state.

The violence, which last month included the kidnapping of 10 workers from a Canadian-run mine, has been a focal point of Mexico’s security forces under Sheinbaum’s government after it took power the year the Sinaloa cartel infighting broke out. Authorities later identified five of their bodies.

On Sunday, CJNG immediately made their grievances with Oseguera’s death known nationally. Local media reported road blockages, attacks against businesses or burnt vehicles in 22 states, a show of the cartel’s might and geographic reach.

“Jalisco is more loosely structured the further you go down the chain of command than Sinaloa, and they have a much more diversified portfolio,” said McCormick.

The immediate reaction in some parts of the country was a sign of that power, she said, pointing to the states of Michoacan, Veracruz, Colima and Guanajuato as places that could see greater cartel violence.

Regional shift

Latin America has watched in recent months as the U.S. killed over 100 people on boats allegedly carrying drugs. A U.S. military operation in Venezuela in January ended up with the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, who is now facing charges of abetting the drug trade.

And so, governments in the region are feeling the pressure — in part because of the U.S., and in part because crime and violence remain among citizens’ top concerns.

In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro’s controversial peace plan with armed groups has allowed for the generation of record amounts of cocaine and a violent start to the country’s election season. Even with a few months left in office, he has faced immense pressure from Trump.

In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection, has tried a strategy of fighting against cartels’ financing. A huge raid in Sao Paulo’s financial hub last year happened without much fanfare, while a police operation that ended in the killing of more than 100 people in Rio de Janeiro received much popular support.

For Mexico, the problem is one both at home and abroad, as Sheinbaum has insisted that her government has seen an over 40% decrease in homicides from the time she took office.

Trump has mentioned fentanyl imports into the U.S. and drug overdoses of Americans as a reason to intervene in Latin American affairs since he started his second term. Analysts say it’s been a convenient cover for a government that wants a bigger and more aggressive footprint in the region.

When a reporter asked whether Mexico was prepared for the fallout from a change in the balance of power in the Jalisco cartel, Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch — the face of much of the government’s security strategy — said that the government was watching out “for any kind of reaction or restructuring within the cartel that could be violent,” he said.

Defense Minister Ricardo Trevilla said on Monday that Sheinbaum’s government more broadly has stepped up the destruction of drug labs, and at a more structural level, strengthened the National Guard that complements the traditional military forces and improved its intelligence capacities.

Many Mexicans who have seen similar episodes, including during the presidency of Felipe Calderon, are not yet reassured. Oseguera’s killing might be reminiscent of the capture of cartel leader Edgar Valdez Villarreal, known as “La Barbie,” in 2010 or the pursuit of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.

But McCormick says it’s quite differently when looked at closely.

“Garcia Harfuch and Sheinbaum were pushed into pivoting to this strategy but they’re actively focusing on coordination and collaboration with local authorities,” she said. “That’s a different tenor than Calderon.”