Despite Epstein scandal, polls show MAGA base 'very, very strongly' behind Trump

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has spent recent days leaning into cultural issues championed by his “Make America Great Again” base amid the ongoing Jeffrey Epstein saga, as he looks to reinforce his still-solid support among Republican voters.

Still, at the six-month mark of his second term and with several legislative achievements already behind him, Trump’s approval numbers with other voting blocs have been trending downward as Democratic lawmakers try to make political hay out of the latest scandal.

White House aides aimed to kick off the week, which is slated to end with Trump traveling to his golf courses in Scotland, by touting what they say is a raft of historically impactful and swift accomplishments. Take this Sunday X post on the White House’s official account: “ATTENTION: TRUMP DIDN’T COME TO PLAY. All gas. No brakes. The winning will continue. The deportations will continue. The memes will continue. THE GOLDEN AGE WILL CONTINUE!”

The reference to a pedal-to-the-metal second term was notably reminiscent of the popular catchphrase of WWE superstar Jacob Fatu, whose rapid ascent in professional wrestling included a recent run as U.S. champion. For Trump, being viewed as the champion of all Americans has never been a high priority — in both his terms, he and his top lieutenants have not done much outreach, on policy or otherwise, to Democratic voters and lawmakers. He also ran three presidential campaigns based mostly on reaching 270 electoral votes and not on healing partisan divisions.

For instance, White House budget director Russ Vought last week told reporters the annual appropriations process should be “less bipartisan.”

“Who ran and won on an agenda of a bipartisan appropriations process? Literally no one. No Democrat, no Republican,” the Office of Management and Budget chief said.

Unsurprisingly, Vought’s remarks drew the ire of Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, who called for the OMB director’s firing.

“Vought is trying to destroy our democracy and the Republicans seem to be going along,” the New York senator said Thursday.

Since taking shape after he entered the political fray in 2015, Trump’s base has never been in much of a mood to support compromising with Democrats or giving ground on hot-button cultural issues. Vought’s defiance on federal spending, the administration’s hard-line immigration policies and Trump’s near-daily opining on cultural matters has kept that base on his side.

That’s a big reason why talk of Trump losing his MAGA base over the Epstein scandal likely reflects wishful thinking or exaggeration by his detractors.

Eighty-nine percent of Republicans said they approved of the overall job Trump is doing as president, a July 16-18 CBS News/YouGov poll found. The survey was conducted after Attorney General Pamela Bondi announced that the administration would not, despite Trump’s 2024 campaign trail promises, release any documents related to Epstein, the deceased convicted sex offender. (Eleven percent of Republicans disapproved of Trump’s job performance.)

A slightly larger number of Republicans, 91%, told the CBS/YouGov pollsters that they approved of Trump’s mass deportation program of undocumented individuals, with just 9% disapproving.

A recent survey by AtlasIntel showed Republican respondents largely on Trump’s side on the Epstein matter, with about 66% saying the scandal would not factor too much into their vote in next year’s midterm elections. More Republicans also said Trump’s relationship with Epstein should not be investigated further (about 57%) than those who said it needed more scrutiny (29%).

What’s more, about 58% of Republicans said Trump had been either “fully” or “somewhat” transparent about his association with Epstein, while about 30% said he’d been either “not transparent at all” or “not very transparent.” (Large numbers of Democrats, according to both surveys, disapproved of Trump’s overall performance and his immigration policies.)

Trump’s strength with base voters illustrates why Vought was so defiant last week on federal appropriations and why the president in recent days has pushed cultural issues such as trying to get two professional sports teams, the Washington Commanders and the Cleveland Guardians, to change their names back to the Redskins and Indians respectively. The president also fired off a post Monday morning about crime rates in U.S. cities, which he and conservative media outlets pushed during the 2024 election.

‘Still with him’

In short, it’s still all about the base, which has never left Trump. But that does not mean the recent polling doesn’t hold some unnerving news for a president who’s said his legal gurus are exploring ways he could seek a third term.

Independent voters played a major role in pushing Trump to victory in seven battleground states in November. The CBS News/YouGov and AtlasIntel surveys showed some heartburn for Trump among independents over his job approval, policies and handling of the Epstein scandal.

Asked about the president’s overall job performance, 68% of independents said they disapproved, while 32% approved, according to the CBS News survey. More than half (59%) of independents disapproved of the deportation program, while 41% approved.

About the coming midterm elections, 50% of independents said the Epstein saga would be a “very important” factor with a further 9% saying it would be “important,” the AtlasIntel poll found. About 41% said it would not be important. And an eye-catching 83% of this key voting bloc told the AtlasIntel pollsters that Trump’s relationship with Epstein needed further investigation, while just about 8% said it has been “sufficiently” examined already.

Anthony Salvanto, the executive director of elections and surveys at CBS News, described Trump’s support among his Republican base this way on “Face the Nation” on Sunday: “Very, very strongly behind him and especially on this immigration issue — and especially on deportation.”

“What you see in this dynamic is increasingly a base that really likes what it sees and everybody else with growing doubts,” Salvanto said.

But former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, an Illinois Republican and noted Trump critic, predicted Monday that the backlash over the Epstein files would spread beyond conservative media personalities and social media influencers and would ultimately make the president “squirm.”

“If they do come out, they’ll likely reveal just how close Trump was to Epstein,” Kinzinger wrote on Substack of documents related to Epstein’s federal criminal case. “In a normal era, a scandal like this would drive a president to resign. Trump won’t. He’ll hide behind the office and pretend nothing happened. But the damage is done. The polls will get worse.”

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