SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif., is running his own political version of "The Bachelor" to find a new congressional district — and he is down to three roses.

Over the past few weeks, Kiley has publicly ruled out several potential districts as he weighs where to seek reelection. That leaves him with three options if he decides to run again for Congress.

His current district, which spans from the Sacramento suburbs down to near Death Valley, was split into six different pieces after California’s Proposition 50 redrew the state’s congressional map. What remains of the 3rd Congressional District has leaned heavily Democratic in recent elections.

“Prop 50 created an existential crisis for him,” said Sacramento redistricting expert Paul Mitchell, who drew the new maps.

Kiley’s most recent elimination came Monday, when he announced he would not run in the 7th Congressional District, which is represented by Congresswoman Doris Matsui. He had previously ruled out Districts 1 and 4.

Each of Kiley’s remaining options comes with significant challenges, according to political experts and consultants. And some say a run for California Senate may be a safer path, at least in the short term.

“None of the districts that he can choose from is really a good safe bet for him,” said Charles Turner, a professor of political science at California State University, Chico. “So I can understand why it’s taking him a while to really decide on what he’s going to do.”

Kiley, 40, told The Sacramento Bee earlier this month that he had no timeline for deciding where to seek reelection. Candidates have until early March to file nominating papers.

‘Makes the most sense’

Kiley’s clearest path to staying in Congress may come through California’s 6th Congressional District, which includes West Sacramento, Natomas, East Sacramento and Citrus Heights, Roseville and Rocklin.

“This one makes the most sense,” said Republican consultant Rob Stutzman.

Stutzman said the district would allow Kiley to retain a “good chunk” of his Placer County voter base while avoiding a contest against an incumbent. The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, who is running for the 3rd District.

A growing field of Democratic contenders has announced plans to succeed Bera, including Planned Parenthood leader Lauren Babb Tomlinson, former Sen. Richard Pan, Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho and West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero.

Still, Stutzman said Kiley would likely lean on his longstanding feud with Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has historically underperformed in that region. He authored a book titled “Recall Newsom: The Case against America’s Most Corrupt Governor” in 2021. Kiley has also positioned himself for this district by criticizing House Speaker Mike Johnson and inching toward a more “independent-style Republican” image, Stutzman added.

“Someone like Kiley is exactly the type of Republican that could win that seat,” Stutzman said.

Mitchell remained skeptical of Kiley’s chances in this district. Even if he won, Mitchell said holding the seat would be difficult.

“He would be the most targeted member in the country,” Mitchell said.

‘Convince McClintock not to run’

If Kiley is seeking a seat with long-term stability, Mitchell said his best option may be the 5th Congressional District which is represented by Republican Rep. Tom McClintock.

The race would likely be the most “bruising” in the short-term but offer the most permanence if successful, Mitchell said.

“If Kiley wins, he stays in Congress the rest of his life,” Mitchell said.

The downside is that McClintock would likely secure former President Donald Trump’s endorsement and the full backing of the Republican Party, Stutzman said. McClintock, a longtime conservative stalwart, has served in Congress since 2009.

In 2022, McClintock received Trump’s endorsement and earned a perfect rating from the American Conservative Union the year prior. He also voted against impeaching Trump and opposed a plan to establish a commission to investigate the Capitol insurrection in 2021.

“The only reason he should run in 5 is if he can get the Republican Party to endorse him and convince McClintock not to run,” Turner said.

Numbers ‘favor the Democrats’

Kiley’s most formidable challenge could come from seeking reelection in his current district. The newly drawn 3rd Congressional District — one of five designed to target Republican incumbents — now favors Democrats.

The district has shifted from likely Republican to likely Democratic, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan organization that rates House races. If the new district existed in the last election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would have carried it by roughly 10 points, according to previous Bee reporting.

“Ultimately, the numbers are really going to favor the Democrats in that district,” Turner said.

The leading challenger to Kiley’s seat is Bera, who announced minutes after polls closed in November that he was running in the 3rd district. Bera, a physician and former Sacramento County chief medical officer, has represented Sacramento County congressional districts since 2013.

‘Best chance of winning a race’

Another option for Kiley could be a temporary return to the California Legislature. He served in the Assembly from 2016 to 2022.

Both Stutzman and Mitchell pointed to the state Senate seat held by Republican Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil as a potential landing spot. Alvarado-Gil was elected as a Democrat in 2022 before switching parties in 2024 and has faced allegations of sexual harassment.

“It probably pretty easy for him to win, and it would be a safe Republican seat,” Mitchell said.

A stint in the Legislature could position Kiley to run for Congress again in 2028 or 2030, when California will approve a new congressional map. That map could produce a more Republican-friendly district for Kiley.

“That might not be a bad place to bunker down for now and wait this out … Things are always changing in politics, so that would probably be his best chance of winning a race in 2026,” Turner said.

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