It’s been more than a month since President Donald Trump teased an endorsement in the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, but the president has yet to weigh in on his pick for the statewide office.

On March 4, the day after Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a Republican runoff in the Texas primary election, Trump posted on Truth Social that he’d “soon” be endorsing between the two candidates and that he’d ask the other candidate drop out of the contentious primary race. The Atlantic reported that Cornyn was expected to win the president’s support.

The next day, Paxton posted on X that he’d consider dropping out of the runoff if the U.S. Senate passed the SAVE America Act. The election bill would require proof of citizenship when registering to vote and photo ID when voting in federal elections.

The Senate took up the bill later that month and is still considering the legislation that has amplified discussions about the chamber’s filibuster rule.

“Ken Paxton played better defense than the Dallas Cowboys,” University of Houston Political Science Professor Brandon Rottinghaus said in a text message responding to questions from the Star-Telegram. “He expertly staved off a Trump endorsement of Cornyn with backdoor pressure of the White House and tying his willingness to drop out if the Senate passed the SAVE Act.”

A month out from the start of early voting, Trump’s endorsement is still up in the air, if coming at all. Cornyn’s campaign declined to comment, and Paxton’s campaign did not return requests for comment. The White House also didn’t return requests.

There are multiple reasons the president may have not weighed in yet, said Joshua Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

“First and foremost, it’s pretty clear that Trump has demonstrated a pattern in which his endorsements tend to only come in situations in which he can either be the king maker or be seen as the king maker, and currently, this race just appears to remain too close to call,” Blank said.

Rottinghaus said “Trump likes to pick winners” so any endorsement would likely come later in the race when the contours are clearer.

Several recent polls have put Paxton ahead of Cornyn in the primary runoff. Cornyn has also come out on top in a couple, albeit by slimmer margins.

“Trump’s team has access to the best information available, and if they felt that his endorsement would push either candidate over the finish line, or that one candidate was clearly likely to win this race, I think we would have seen a Trump endorsement by now,” Blank said.

Senate Republicans have reportedly pressed Trump to endorse Cornyn as they try to keep a majority in Washington.

“(If) Trump endorses early, it saves everybody a lot of money, and … 10 weeks of a spirited campaign on our side that keeps us from spending time focusing on the Democrats,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in March.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which works to get Republicans elected, has endorsed Cornyn.

“We have been very clear that the fight to protect President Trump’s Senate majority should not be fought in Texas and John Cornyn is the only candidate who ensures that does not happen,” said NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said in a Friday statement, when asked about the status of the president’s endorsement.

Paxton’s SAVE Act maneuver created leverage for Trump to negotiate with Senate Republicans and demonstrated the lengths he’d go to in order to support Trump, Blank said.

He thinks it’s unlikely Trump endorses in the race at this point, unless something happens changes the dynamics of the race in a way where there’s clear winner.

What’s the weight of a Trump endorsement in Texas Senate race?

The endorsement doesn’t carry as much weight as it would in some other elections, given Paxton and Cornyn are both well known and voters have established views about them, Blank said.

Rottinghaus said a Trump endorsement may help Cornyn “a little bit,” but wouldn’t have much impact on Paxton’s voters. He, too, noted that Republican voters largely have candidate preferences that are already baked in.

“MAGA voters are generally die hard for Paxton, and while an endorsement might cement that and be a cause for celebration, but won’t shift votes,” Rottinghaus said. “A Trump endorsement for Cornyn won’t shift any MAGA voters since they are ideologically opposed to Cornyn.”

Blank questioned the helpfulness of a Trump endorsement for Cornyn longterm, were he to advance to a November general election against state Rep. James Talarico, Texas’ Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate. Cornyn has warned of Republican losses if Paxton is at the top of the ticket.

“The argument that the Cornyn camp has been making all along is that they’re the more electable candidate,” Blank said. “But given Trump’s standing among Democrats and, in particular, among independents, it does raise the question of whether a Trump endorsement would be good for Cornyn in the longterm.”

In some ways, the prudent move for Trump is to not endorse either candidate, Blank said. Ultimately, endorsing creates problems for the president, whether his candidate wins or loses, he said.

If he endorses Cornyn and Cornyn wins, Trump could be seen as turning his back on a key ally in Paxton and his base, Blank said.

“If he supports Paxton and Paxton goes on wins, there’s a concern amongst Republican elites about how much resources the party would have to direct to Texas in order to make sure that Paxton holds the seat,” he said.

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