NORFOLK, Va. — With Election Day just around the corner, a new survey from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University found that Virginia’s 2nd District, where Democrat and former Rep. Elaine Luria and Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans are in the midst of a rematch, the race is close. Among likely voters in the district, 46% said they would vote for Luria and 43% said they would vote for Kiggans.

That’s within the survey’s 4-point margin of error.

Another 6% of voters said they were undecided, and 2% said they would vote for someone else. Matt Baker and Bishop Staten are running as Independent candidates in the election.

In the red wave 2022 election, Kiggans unseated Luria, winning the seat by 3 points.

Nationally, Democrats are watching districts like the 2nd as seats to flip in order to take back the U.S. House of Representatives. If the polling is accurate, a 3-point margin this late in the election season is a tighter race than one might expect if there’s going to be a blue wave, said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, interim director of the Wason Center.

“Jen Kiggans is a strong incumbent, and she’s a moderate that fits the district,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “In ways, it makes sense that it’s a tight race. And it does lean a little bit Republican, this district, so that plays into it as well. But yes, I also thought it would be a little bit further apart if there’s a blue wave.”

Bromley-Trujillo said the district is one to watch on Election Night; the results could be indicative both of how the state and the nation might vote.

“A lot of times, how Virginia Beach goes so goes the state,” she said. “That’s part of the bellwether aspect, and just the fact that this race has shifted back and forth between the parties over the years — even after it was redistricted to be a little bit more Republican — suggests that it will tell us something.”

Bromley-Trujillo projected that Luria would win the district, in part given the current unpopularity of President Donald Trump and the historical trend of the president’s party losing seats in the House during midterm elections. The poll found that among likely voters in the 2nd District, just 33% approve of Trump’s job performance while 62% disapprove.

If Luria does win, the margin matters, too, Bromley-Trujillo said. If she wins by a lot, it could suggest a huge blue wave. But if it’s a narrow victory:

“I think Democrats in that case might still take control, or probably would still take control of the House,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “But in that scenario, if it’s really tight, I would not suspect Democrats to take control of the Senate.”

The poll found that the top issues likely 2nd District voters are considering this year are cost of living, threats to democracy and immigration. Democrats reported that their top issues were cost of living, threats to democracy, and foreign policy/war. Republicans favored immigration, cost of living and threats to democracy as their top issues.

The Wason Center also found that among likely voters in the district Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Warner has a 14-point lead — 51% to 37% with 11% of voters undecided — over Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa.

Polling reflects a snapshot in time, in this case from Oct. 1 to 10, and is not necessarily predictive. The Wason Center surveyed 702 likely voters — people who have voted in at least two of the last four general elections or are newly registered in the last six months — by phone during that time period. When the Wason Center surveyed the race around the same time four years ago, the candidates were tied, and Kiggans went on to win by a little over three points.

Early voting runs through Oct. 31, and Election Day is Nov. 3.

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