Bolsonaro, Lula in tight race ahead of runoff, poll shows

Andrew Rosati and Augusta Saraiva, Bloomberg News on Oct 15, 2026

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Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are locked in a close race ahead of Brazil’s runoff election, according to a new poll.

Bolsonaro would take 51% of valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots, to Lula’s 49%, according to a Datafolha survey published Thursday. The gap is within the survey’s 2-point margin of error.

The right-wing senator led by 4 points in last week’s Datafolha poll. The shifts for both candidates were also within the poll’s margin of error.

Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of the presidential contest on Oct. 4, sparking a surge in Brazilian assets because investors broadly view him as more likely to pursue spending cuts and address the country’s deteriorating fiscal situation. He outperformed Datafolha’s final poll of the first round by about 5 points.

The leftist Lula, 80, has sought to regain momentum ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff, staging large street rallies and a last-minute legislative push. Late Wednesday, the Senate gave final passage to his plan to shorten Brazil’s workweek, the flagship promise of Lula’s campaign.

Lower house lawmakers also approved his proposal to forgive debts of so-called microentrepreneurs, the latest in a series of initiatives Lula has put forward in a bid to alleviate high levels of household indebtedness.

On Thursday, he announced that he will propose legislation to provide free public transportation in Brazilian cities on weekends.

Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has pledged to take an aggressive approach to crime, which ranks as one of voters’ top concerns. He’s also vowed to seek the impeachment of the Supreme Court justice who oversaw his father’s conviction for attempting a coup following the 2022 election. He has also called for a “big cut” to spending, although he’s provided few details about his fiscal plans.

The latest battleground between the two candidates is a bill that proposes an overhaul of public security, including closer cooperation between federal and local forces as well as harsher sentences for those convicted of organized crime offenses.

The measure is part of Lula’s bid to blunt Bolsonaro’s advantage on a top-of-mind concern for Brazilians and counter perceptions he’s soft on crime. But at the last minute, Bolsonaro’s allies proposed adding a provision to lower the age of criminal responsibility in an effort to pressure his rival.

Lula, who has historically opposed punitive measures, said in an interview with TV Globo late Thursday that he supports lowering the age at which individuals can be criminally prosecuted for heinous crimes to 16 from 18. Bolsonaro argues it should be lowered further to 14.

“This is something we’ve defended for decades,” Bolsonaro said on a YouTube live with allies earlier on Thursday.

Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people on Oct. 13-14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with Brazil’s electoral court at BR-00466/2026.