In late September, Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson vowed in a social media video that his party would “defy the odds” in the San Diego region’s most competitive race.

Standing beside Republican candidate and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, Johnson called the 48th Congressional District — split between San Diego and Riverside counties — “one of the most important races in all of America.”

“On paper, this looks like a Democrat district, but we are going to defy history,” Johnson said.

Now, with little more than a week before the election wraps up Nov. 3, Republicans will have to overcome a massive influx of Democratic spending to make that happen.

The final sprint of the race comes amid a broader Republican retreat around the country contesting seats once considered competitive or even safe for their party, as Democrats look to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings.

In the critical San Diego-area seat, polls have found Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert in the lead. At the same time, wealthy GOP groups have declined to make the kind of investment in Desmond seen in California’s other competitive congressional races.

For months, the contest between Desmond and von Wilpert has been seen as tight, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district. Desmond and von Wilpert both have deep political résumés, and on the trail, they’ve looked to appeal to the district’s moderate and swing voters.

But Desmond’s party faces major headwinds this election cycle as more voters sour on Trump’s job performance. In recent days, Republican super PACs have canceled spending in several front-line congressional races as Democrats scramble to direct more cash to Republican-held seats, the Associated Press has reported.

Republicans are overall still expected to have a $650 million advertising advantage over Democrats this cycle, according to the New York Times. Yet an avalanche of cash from Republican outside groups is not materializing for Desmond in the final days of the election.

As of Oct. 14, outside groups had spent $588,000 backing Desmond this cycle. The largest tranche of it came only in recent weeks from super PACs controlled by Trump that have spent $397,000 in the race, disclosures show.

Spending from Democratic groups backing von Wilpert dwarfs those totals: Over the same time period, such groups spent $8.1 million backing von Wilpert, according to campaign filings. Her biggest backer is a group called House Majority PAC, which had spent $4.2 million backing her. About a third of that was spent just in the first half of October.

Disclosures by the candidates’ own campaigns also show von Wilpert investing more money in the race than Desmond in the final stretch. From the beginning of July through mid-October, von Wilpert had spent $2.7 million, while Desmond spent $1.4 million.

By the end of that period, Desmond reported having $718,000 in cash on hand. Von Wilpert had $659,000.

Spending by both the national party committees, which can coordinate spending with candidates, were similar to one another. The National Republican Congressional Committee coordinated $1.4 million in spending with Desmond, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee coordinated $1.2 million in spending with von Wilpert.

To Mike Madrid, a longtime GOP consultant in California, the spending totals are a sign Republicans don’t view Desmond’s race as competitive.

“I think they’re just letting it go,” Madrid said.

A different story is playing out elsewhere in California — in particular in two key congressional races in the Central Valley.

In the state’s 13th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Adam Gray is facing a challenge from Kevin Lincoln, the Republican former mayor of Stockton. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a leading Republican super PAC, had spent nearly $4.9 million there as of mid-October, according to disclosures.

Even more has been spent in the neighboring 22nd Congressional District, where Republican Rep. David Valadao faces a challenge from Randy Villegas, a community college professor backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The same Republican super PAC has spent $6.2 million defending Valadao’s seat, disclosures show.

The PAC has not reported spending any money in support of Desmond.

Desmond’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment. On Friday, the NRCC said in a statement that Desmond “remains within striking distance” of von Wilpert.

“Democrats can’t sell Marni von Wilpert’s disastrous record, and they can’t spend enough to bury it,” said NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez.

Analysts say the dynamics in the race reflect the country’s overall political climate more than any local issues.

“The problem for Republicans nationwide is they’re having to play triage,” said Mason Herron, a Republican political consultant with Edgewater Strategies. “They’re having to defend a lot more areas than they initially anticipated like six months ago.”

In line with the rest of the country, Trump’s approval ratings in the district have only sunk with time. Earlier this month, 61% of likely voters in the district said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing, up from 55% a month earlier, a San Diego Union-Tribune poll found.

The same poll found von Wilpert had only widened her lead over Desmond, with 47% of likely voters saying she had their support — a 9-point lead, up from 3 points a month earlier.

“You could look at this as a 50/50 race,” Herron added. “In a year where it was an unpopular Democratic president and a Democratic Congress, you might see the inverse happening. But that’s obviously not the situation right now.”

AI ads and appeals to the middle

Given the climate, Desmond and von Wilpert have taken different angles on the campaign trail.

Von Wilpert has sought to tie Desmond to the Trump administration as much as possible. Desmond has mostly kept a wide berth of national politics, and instead attacked von Wilpert’s votes on the City Council.

But Desmond hasn’t disavowed the president, either. In April, Trump endorsed him, and the county supervisor has voiced support for many of Trump’s more divisive policies, including the Iran war, tariffs and ending birthright citizenship.

Trump’s recent remarks at a political rally about the possibility of Iran attacking San Diego did prompt criticism from Desmond. “No American family should ever be treated as collateral damage,” he wrote on social media.

Recently, however, the messaging by Desmond’s campaign makes no mention of Trump. Instead, he has focused on his ties to the community, reducing drug costs and banning members of Congress from trading stocks.

“I’ve delivered for this community,” Desmond says in a recent social media video. “I’m going to be responsible for you in Washington, D.C. Not for any politician, but for you.”

Von Wilpert thinks Desmond should still own his support for the Trump administration.

“California families are struggling, and it’s a direct result of the chaos and corruption coming from Donald Trump, corruption that Jim Desmond stands by,” she said during a news conference last month.

In addition to seeking to energize voters by invoking Trump, von Wilpert’s campaign is also emphasizing her own record as an elected official — including on public safety, abortion rights and her time in the San Diego Office of the City Attorney, where she worked on litigation against companies such as opioid manufacturers.

“I’ve beaten the Republicans, and the powerful special interests who rig the system,” she says in a recent TV ad.

Desmond has tried to make von Wilpert’s time on the City Council her biggest liability. To do that, his campaign has deployed multiple social media videos using imagery generated by artificial intelligence.

One video features a horde of AI-generated beachgoers sprinting to the restroom and clutching their bladders as they pass a sign reading “San Diego Beach: Bathrooms Closed.”

The ad is meant to criticize von Wilpert’s vote in support of San Diego’s budget for the current fiscal year, which included closing about half of the public bathrooms in Mission Bay Park. The city later retreated from the closures, using short-term funding to keep them open through the end of the year.

Another video features a Frank Sinatra-esque voice singing about von Wilpert’s votes in support of charging for parking in Balboa Park. The city has also reversed course on paid parking, and plans to phase it out by year’s end.

In an interview earlier this month, Desmond tried to further link von Wilpert to other complaints about how Democrats are governing San Diego and California.

“We’re a one-party state, and the party in charge in Sacramento is driving businesses away,” Desmond said. “Even the city of San Diego — they’ve got their issues there. They’re not keeping up with their infrastructure. They’re not keeping up with the basics that people and businesses need to survive.”

Von Wilpert has previously stressed that she was a reluctant supporter of unpopular policies like paid parking in Balboa Park. “I don’t love this,” she said at the time, hoping the fees could later be rescinded.

None of the 48th Congressional District is within San Diego city limits. In an interview, von Wilpert said voters in the district are more concerned with Medi-Cal cuts, infrastructure funding and the high cost of living.

As Desmond and von Wilpert fight for swing voters, analysts still see the race’s fundamentals as hinging on how the district has been drawn to benefit Democrats.

Last year, Democrats in the Legislature redrew California’s congressional maps as redistricting battles spread through statehouses nationwide. California voters ultimately backed the maps via ballot measure in a special election.

When the new version of the 48th district was first created, Democrats held a 4-point registration advantage, thanks in part to the district’s inclusion of the Democratic stronghold of Palm Springs. The party’s advantage has since grown to 5 percentage points.

Facing a more challenging race with the district’s new boundaries, Republican incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa declined to run for reelection. His decision prompted Desmond to jump in, after a year campaigning for a nearby seat.

On the Republican side, the redrawn district includes more traditional Republican voters in North County, Desmond’s home base, along with more right-wing Republican voters in areas around Temecula, said Shaun Bowler, a political science professor at UC Riverside.

That creates problems for Desmond on both side of the aisle, Bowler said.

“He might be too centrist for the hard-right base. On the other hand, on his left flank he’s dealing with all these voters from the Coachella Valley area who are not predisposed to the Republicans,” Bowler said. “He needs to motivate angry-slash-enthusiastic GOP voters — and I’m not sure that’s happening.”

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