Verdict is in: Yankees slugger Aaron Judge so good, sportsbook takes down AL MVP odds

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Jun 16, 2025

Published in Baseball

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LAS VEGAS — Aaron Judge has slammed the gavel down on the American League MVP race less than halfway through the MLB season.

The New York Yankees right fielder has been so dominant — leading the majors in batting average (.378), on-base percentage (.473) and hits (99) entering Monday — that he caused the Westgate SuperBook to take the AL MVP betting market off the board May 4, barely a month into the season.

“Unless he gets hurt, he’s going to win, so there’s no point having it up right now,” Westgate baseball oddsmaker Randy Blum said. “He’s not going to hit .400. But you know he’s going to have the power. The only way he can lose is by getting injured.”

Judge remains a massive MVP favorite at other books, including -20,000 at Boyd Gaming, which means bettors must wager $20,000 to win $100 on him to win the award.

His combination of hitting for average and power at this point in the season is unprecedented.

Before Judge went 1 for 12 in a three-game weekend series at the Boston Red Sox, he had the highest batting average ever (.394) by a player with 25 home runs or more through 66 games. That eclipsed the previous marks set by Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle (.381, 27 homers in 1956), Jimmie Foxx (.379, 29 homers, 1932) and Babe Ruth (.375, 29 homers, 1930), according to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports).

Bettors can get a plus price on Judge to win the Triple Crown. He is +260 at Caesars Sportsbook to become only the second player in the past 58 years (Miguel Cabrera, 2012) to accomplish the rare feat of leading his league in batting average, home runs and RBIs.

The 6-foot-7, 282-pound Judge leads the AL in RBIs (60) and is tied with Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh for the most homers in the majors (26). Judge is the -120 favorite at the Westgate to be crowned baseball’s home run king for the third time in four years.

CBS Sportsline handicapper Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sportsbook director, agrees with Blum that the only way Judge doesn’t win his second straight AL MVP and third in four years is if he gets hurt.

“That’s basically what you have to hope if you bet someone else because Judge has overwhelming numbers right now. This is insane,” said Roberts (@MicahRoberts7). “I can’t see anybody touching Judge.”

Roberts does not recommend betting on another player to win AL MVP. But if Judge does get injured, he said Raleigh, the 40-1 second choice at Boyd Gaming, might merit consideration.

“Maybe Cal Raleigh because of the home runs,” Roberts said. “If he got 45 or 50 homers, you’d have to consider him if Judge gets hurt. Then you’ve got the second horse in the field.”

Oh, Ohtani

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani is a prohibitive -600 favorite at Boyd to win the National League MVP for the second straight year after twice winning the AL MVP for the Los Angeles Angels in 2021 and 2023. He’s a -450 favorite at Caesars.

“He won it last year without pitching,” Blum said. “If he’s going to pitch, I can’t imagine him not winning.”

The Japanese star’s MVP odds improved Sunday when news broke he would return to the mound Monday for the first time since 2023 after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Even with Ohtani pitching again, Roberts isn’t convinced Ohtani is a lock to win his fourth MVP award.

“There are guys that have better numbers than his right now. He’s not blowing up like he did last year,” Roberts said. “When he pitches, it’s like he takes off a personal day of hitting.”

Ohtani leads the NL in homers with 25 after hitting two Saturday. That ended a drought of 10 games without a homer, his longest such stretch with the Dodgers. But he entered Monday only third on his team in batting, with a .297 average, and tied for fourth on Los Angeles in RBIs with 41.

Contenders

Roberts said the players below Ohtani in the NL MVP odds market might be worth a wager: Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, the 16-1 second choice at Boyd, and Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll and New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who are tied for the 25-1 third pick.

“That would be the best value,” Roberts said. “Take a shot with the players below him and you can make a case for them against Ohtani.”

Crow-Armstrong is hitting .268 with 18 homers, 57 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. Carroll is batting .253 with 20 homers, 44 RBIs and a league-leading eight triples. Alonso is batting .293 with 17 homers and leads the NL in RBIs (63).