House Republicans released their first stab at a bill to extend President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, which would help pay for them by overhauling much of President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law.

The draft framework put out Monday by the Ways and Means Committee takes aim at billions of dollars of incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, including tax credits for electric vehicles and solar and wind projects — subsidies Trump has derided as part of a “green new scam.”

Several segments of clean energy stand to lose out under the framework, which is an early blueprint and will likely see revisions during the legislative process. Electric vehicle credits would end after next year. A home clean energy credit would terminate after this year, making rooftop-solar systems more expensive for consumers who want to buy them.

But segments would fare far better than had been feared in the weeks leading up to the release of the proposal. Tax credits for making solar panels or batteries in the U.S. would, for example, be phased out just a year earlier than scheduled. The draft bill takes more of a “scalpel than a sledgehammer” to Biden’s law, said analysts with Jefferies.

Still, it’s mostly bad news for the U.S. clean energy sector and for efforts to reduce the nation’s climate emissions, which the IRA was estimated to cut by 43% to 48% below 2005 levels over the next decade, according to one analysis.

The overhaul would raise energy costs for U.S. households by as much as 7% in 2035, according to a preliminary analysis by the Rhodium Group. The plan would save the government more than $560 billion on energy tax credits over 10 years, according to an official nonpartisan congressional estimate.

The House proposal, of course, is far from final — and is already facing pushback from some Republicans in the Senate.

The plan “needs refinement,” said Thom Tillis of North Carolina. He serves on the Senate’s tax writing committee and was one of four Republicans to sign a letter last month vowing to defend the IRA’s energy tax credits. “It needs more transitions. It’s not quite what we would author out here.”

Here’s who loses big, and not quite so big, under the House proposal.

Big losers

EV makers and buyers

Tesla Inc., General Motors Co. and other electric vehicle makers and their customers stand to be among the biggest losers. Biden’s climate law extended a lucrative tax credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of an EV and also expanded the credit to allow used and commercial electric vehicles to qualify. The Republican tax plan would eliminate the consumer vehicle credit by the end of next year. Only carmakers that have sold fewer than 200,000 EVs by the end of this year would would be eligible to receive it in 2026. The GOP proposal also would end credits for used and commercial electric vehicles. The repeal of all three credits would result in more than $190 billion in savings for the government over 10 years, according to the congressional estimate.

Solar-shopping homeowners

Homeowners who want to buy solar panels and other clean energy systems for their homes would lose a popular 30% tax credit at year’s end under the proposal. The move, if it becomes law, would be a blow for those who want to invest in producing their own clean energy as a hedge against rising utility bills and power outages. The tax change would also hurt solar-equipment makers such as Enphase Energy Inc. and SolarEdge Technologies Inc. The move would save the government $77 billion over 10 years, according to the estimate.

Nuclear power sector

The plan would phase out a tax credit for the production of nuclear power and completely end it starting in 2032. Proponents of nuclear say that since no new projects are expected to come online by then, operators of future plants and developers of small modular reactors likely won’t get access to the credit. A number of technology giants are counting on new nuclear plants to offer carbon-free power for their data centers to run energy-intensive artificial intelligence applications.

Hydrogen producers

A tax credit for hydrogen production, which provides as much as $3 per kilogram, is set to be eliminated starting in 2026. The credit was designed to spur a domestic industry for the clean-burning fuel, which is seen as a critical for decarbonizing steel, cement and heavy transportation. Its repeal would represent a blow to producers such as Plug Power Inc., as well as for companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and others that had been lobbying to have the credit tweaked so hydrogen made using natural gas could take full advantage of it.

Not-so-big losers

Utility-scale renewables

The Republican plan phases out and and puts new restrictions on a pair of investment and production tax credits for wind, solar and other clean electricity production. Both credits would start to phase down for projects placed in service starting in 2029, and would completely end for any projects after 2031. In addition, the Republican bill wouldn’t allow projects that use materials from foreign adversaries such as China and Russia. And the transferability of tax credits would also be pinched, which utilities developing renewables say would result in higher customer bills.

But the news for solar and wind was better than expected, since many investors had anticipated a swifter phase-out. JPMorgan analysts said the GOP plan “aligns with, or exceeds, the more bullish end of investor expectations.” Shares of First Solar Inc., the biggest U.S. solar manufacturer, climbed on Monday.

All in all, the changes are estimated to prevent more than $182 billion in government spending over 10 years, with nearly $155 billion of that coming from the investment tax credit alone.

Carbon capture and storage

A tax credit that provides as much as $85 a ton for the storage of carbon dioxide survives in the GOP plan. But the Republican proposal places new restrictions on it, disallowing the credit for projects that are owned or “influenced” by certain foreign countries, such as China. The tweak would save the government an estimated $18 billion.

_____

(With assistance from Emma Sanchez.)

_____

©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.