Hurricane center ups odds system could develop near Florida

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 1, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday increased the odds a low pressure system expected to form later this week near Florida could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said a frontal boundary coming down from the U.S. mainland is expected to stall and weaken off the U.S. coast late this week, which could then lead to a low pressure area forming in a wide swath that runs from Florida’s Gulf coast off to the East Coast in the Atlantic.

“Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days, up from the 20% forecast given since the NHC began keeping tabs on the weather patterns on Sunday.

If it were to develop into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Chantal.

Whether it develops or not, the forecast for Central Florida calls for high chances of precipitation beginning Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

“Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern regardless of development, as repeated rounds of showers and lightning storms increase/compound concerns for flooding, especially locations that receive locally high rainfall amounts over multiple days,” forecasters said.

The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of east Central Florida as having a marginal risk of excessive rainfall each day.

“Gusty winds and occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will be possible with deeper convection,” forecasters said.

The unsettled weather pattern is expected to remain through the weekend before returning to Florida’s standard afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity early next week.

This is the first potential tropical threat to Florida so far for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30. The 2024 season saw heavy activity in the Gulf, with hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton all striking Florida.

So far the season has produced two short-lived named storms — Tropical Storm Andrea that petered out in the middle of the Atlantic in less than a day and Tropical Storm Barry, which formed shortly before making landfall, and then falling apart in Mexico on Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

--------------