WASHINGTON— The White House views a payment of $500 million by Harvard University as a floor in negotiations for a settlement, and the cost of a deal could climb far higher if the school doesn’t submit to government oversight provisions, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

One of the Trump administration’s key demands is that Harvard allow a jointly approved resolution monitor to oversee compliance, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential talks. Harvard must also commit to other oversight reforms to resolve multiple civil rights investigations and unfreeze $2.6 billion in federal research funding.

Education Secretary Linda McMahon has said she expects Columbia University’s recent $221 million settlement with the government to be a template for agreements with other schools. That deal included a monitor role, and the administration is all but insisting that Harvard agree to the same provision. One official said it would take a jaw-dropping figure, like $1 billion, for President Donald Trump to reconsider — forcing the university to weigh whether to agree to such a provision or try to offer a higher settlement instead. The official cautioned that it’s premature to say how high a penalty could rise.

Columbia also agreed in its settlement to increase supervision of international students, diversify teaching viewpoints, bolster campus safety, disclose foreign gifts and strengthen training on combating antisemitism. The administration will press for Harvard to agree to similar or even more restrictive measures on those matters, another person said.

Harvard, the wealthiest and oldest U.S. university, has borne the brunt of Trump’s attack on the Ivy League but also led one of the fiercest pushbacks, including two lawsuits. What began as criticism of the university for failing to adequately fight antisemitism on campus has since broadened into a bigger standoff over diversity programs and accusations of political bias. Harvard has said the government’s sweeping demands for oversight of hiring and admissions practices constitute an unconstitutional attempt to wield control over the university.

In addition to freezing Harvard’s funds, Trump has tried to stop Harvard from enrolling international students, which a court temporarily blocked, and threatened to revoke its tax-exempt status. He also signed a bill that increases taxes on the net investment income from the endowments of some wealthy private colleges, including Harvard’s. The university has said the administration’s actions could cost it $1 billion annually and has begun hiring freezes and cost cuts.

Harvard did not respond to requests for comment.

Harvard’s lawyers have warned of a “shot clock” for restoring research grants and contracts that were halted by the Trump administration, according to a brief filed in its lawsuit over the funding freeze. The school faces a Sept. 3 deadline — 120 days after the Trump administration moved to formally terminate the funding — to begin filing the paperwork to close out those agreements and “liquidate all financial obligations incurred.”

The university has asked the Boston federal judge overseeing the lawsuit to issue a ruling by that date because it believes the administration will say the grants can’t be restored after that point.

That’s not the only source of time pressure for Harvard. Given that many in the Harvard community have called for university leadership to resist Trump’s demands, Harvard President Alan Garber could face stronger blowback if a deal were to land after students have arrived on campus for the fall semester, which starts in early September.

The Trump administration, though, doesn’t have a sense of urgency to wrap things up before the school year begins, according to a person familiar with the matter, with its willingness to hold out for the terms it finds most favorable potentially adding to its leverage.

Trump signaled in June that the administration was near a “mindbogglingly” historic deal with Harvard, though Bloomberg News reported later that month that talks had stalled. It is not clear how much talks have advanced since then, or whether Columbia’s settlement – or Wednesday’s $50 million deal with Brown University – have helped move things along. One administration official said Harvard is not yet at the stage of haggling over a specific number.

The administration added to pressure on Harvard on Thursday when the Department of Health and Human Services asked the Department of Justice to take enforcement action against the school, claiming it was refusing to comply with civil rights law.

Trump said Wednesday that a $500 million settlement is “a lot of money.” Still, influential conservative activist Christopher Rufo has said he is eyeing $1 billion as a penalty.

“A spectacular judgment of at least a billion dollars against one of these universities could be enough to change their behavior and to persuade them to follow the law,” Rufo said in a recent interview with Bloomberg. “So I think we have to see something like that happen in the case of Harvard.”

Trump projected cautious optimism on Wednesday about the negotiations, saying Harvard “would like to settle, so we’ll see what happens.”

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(With assistance from Greg Ryan, Liam Knox, Michael Smith and Janet Lorin.)

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