For the first time in history, voters in Mexico will cast their ballots for justices, judges and magistrates in an election set to overhaul the nation’s judiciary.

Sunday’s election will decide 881 federal judicial positions nationwide, including the nine seats on Mexico’s reconstituted Supreme Court. In addition, Baja California is among 19 of 32 states holding local elections, with nearly 200 judicial positions up for grabs in the state.

“This has never been done before,” said Luis Alberto Hernández, head of the Baja California State Electoral Institute, an autonomous body that had to organize the special election in record time and on a reduced budget.

The unprecedented election is the result of a controversial judicial reform package pushed by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose Morena political party won a sweeping majority in Congress last year.

The former president said the reform was intended to improve the judiciary and eradicate corruption and impunity. Amid protests and mounting criticism, including from some U.S. officials, López Obrador signed the law days before leaving office, joined by his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum.

But concerns that the new system could threaten judicial independence continue to linger.

A sense of confusion has also settled over the election, with voters contending with a huge pool of unfamiliar candidates and electoral authorities fearing low turnout.

In Baja California, each voter will receive nine lengthy ballots: six for federal offices and three for local offices.

“The number of candidates is staggering,” said David Shirk, a University of San Diego professor and director of the research initiative Justice in Mexico. “Voters have never been through an election like this one, so they are definitely not well-versed or prepared in how to vote.”

An independent judiciary?

Sunday’s election will seat an initial round of federal judges and magistrates, along with all Supreme Court justices. Another election for the remaining judges is anticipated in 2027. Incumbents were given the opportunity to run, but many of them turned it down.

The reform also reduced the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to nine and shortened their terms from 15 to 12 years. Previously, justices in Mexico were nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate, as they are in the U.S.

Federal and state judges were previously appointed through a merit system by federal or state judicial councils, while state magistrates — higher-ranking judges who can review cases — were nominated by Congress.

This time to get on the ballot, federal and state judges had to first meet certain requirements. The candidates were then chosen by separate evaluation committees from each branch of the government.

Voters will also decide on the newly formed Judicial Disciplinary Court, designed to investigate any misconduct by sitting judges and magistrates.

“The goal is to eliminate corruption in the judiciary and to ensure that it truly represents the people,” Sheinbaum said in a video posted on social media.

Both academics and law experts agreed that Mexico needed to change its judicial system, citing long-standing issues such as corruption, nepotism and impunity, but many said electing judges by popular vote might not be the best approach.

Critics argue that a completely elected judiciary could compromise the court’s independence and have other implications.

Shirk said the reform will be “incredibly impactful,” not only for Mexico, but for other countries dealing with Mexico, including the U.S.

“Think about all of the trade disputes,” he said. “All of the business disputes that could take place, and now the individuals who will be making decisions in those cases will have emanated from this politicized process.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar voiced his criticism under the Biden administration, prompting López Obrador to say that Mexico’s relationship with the U.S. Embassy was “on pause.”

Salazar said in an August statement that the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship could be harmed since “it relies on investors’ confidence in Mexico’s legal framework.”

“Direct elections would also make it easier for cartels and other bad actors to take advantage of politically motivated and inexperienced judges,” he added.

Such a statement was considered unusual, said Rafael Fernández de Castro, director of the UC San Diego Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies. “He was an ambassador who chose to be friendly with López Obrador,” he noted. “The only issue on which he crossed swords with him was the judicial reform.”

Fernández de Castro said that the new judicial system could pose an issue at a time when investors need stability, particularly amid the upcoming revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, better known as USMCA.

Some U.S. senators, including the current Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also expressed their worries last year about the constitutional reform when it was still a proposal.

“We are deeply concerned that the proposed judicial reforms in Mexico would undermine the independence and transparency of the country’s judiciary, jeopardizing critical economic and security interests shared by our two nations,” the statement by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said.

Turnout concerns

It remains to be seen if voters will mobilize on Sunday.

Baja California had the lowest voter turnout in the country for the 2024 presidential election, with only 48% of eligible voters casting ballots. In the 2022 special election, in which voters weighed in on whether to recall López Obrador, turnout was 13%, according to electoral data. About 3.2 million of nearly 4 million people in Baja California are registered to vote.

“I don’t think there will be much voter turnout,” said Terry Cárdenas, a law professor at CETYS University in Mexicali. “The other issue is that most people don’t know the candidates.”

Campaign rules were limited for this election, so candidates mostly made themselves known on their personal social media accounts. Billboards and mass media advertising were not permitted.

National turnout was also expected to be low — between 18% and 20%, Guadalupe Taddei, president of the National Electoral Institute, told Mexican news outlet Grupo Fórmula.

Mexicans living abroad will not be able to vote from outside the country, but a federal congresswoman is hoping that could change for future elections.

Maribel Solache, a former longtime San Marcos resident and federal congresswoman who was elected through a system that included immigrants abroad as candidates, voted in favor of the judicial reform.

Solache, from the ruling Morena party, said that she believes “it is important to rethink, update and modernize the administration of justice.”

She said that while she was living in the U.S., she observed how some judges were picked by voters — a process also acknowledged by Sheinbaum.

In California, superior court judges are elected by county voters to six-year terms on nonpartisan ballots. Mid-term vacancies are filled by gubernatorial appointment, after which the judges are subject to election by popular vote. Federal judges are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate.

For now, Solache is encouraging Mexicans who lead “binational lives” with valid voter credentials to cross the border and vote in person.

Election Day

On Sunday, more than 2,600 voting stations will be set up across Baja California’s seven municipalities.

The candidacies are nonpartisan, but the ballot will indicate which candidates have been proposed by committees from the executive, legislative or judicial branch, as well as those who are currently in office.

Voters must identify their choice on a list and write down the candidates’ numbers instead of crossing out their names, as they would on a regular election ballot.

Since it is estimated that voters could spend up to 15 minutes to complete the nine ballots, electoral authorities are setting up more booths per voting station in hopes of making the process more efficient.

With so many candidates and ballots of different colors, electoral authorities acknowledged that the voting process might be confusing. Sheinbaum even posted a video on social media explaining how to vote in Sunday’s election.

Hernández from the Baja California electoral institute suggested that voters learn about the candidates and familiarize themselves with the ballots on the state and federal electoral websites. To practice and get familiar with the process ahead of time, voters can find a sample of the ballots online.

“It’s something new, and like anything new, it has room for improvement,” Hernández said.

Preliminary results are not expected Sunday night, but electoral authorities plan to announce voter turnout on election night. Results are expected within days.

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