FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — One of the nation’s premier political handicappers on Friday shifted the South Florida congressional race between Jared Moskowitz and Scott Singer from a “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.”

Moskowitz, a Democrat, is seeking a third term in the newly crafted 25th Congressional District. Singer, the Republican nominee, is a former mayor of Boca Raton.

The Cook Political Report is regarded as highly authoritative by Democrats and Republicans. Political action committees look to it to help decide where they’ll spend campaign dollars.

Republicans have had high hopes for the 25th District. It was created this year by Republicans who control state government as part of an unusual mid-decade redistricting pushed by President Donald Trump, who told states to craft districts in ways he hoped would elect more Republicans and fewer Democrats.

Trump won the territory that’s in the new 25th District by about 9 percentage points in 2024. Democrat Joe Biden won it by about 5 points in 2020.

In the current political environment, the 25th District and many others are proving challenging for Republicans.

“Despite heavy spending in this district from Republicans since Labor Day — $14 million, per AdImpact — Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz has maintained his edge over former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer,” Erin Covey, The Cook Political Report’s House of Representatives editor, wrote about the ratings shift.

Covey said “Democrats (are) in a decent position to hold this seat. Though Jewish voters, who make up 25% of this district, have trended rightward in recent years, Moskowitz’s staunch support for Israel puts him in a strong position to win the demographic. And South Florida’s Hispanic voters, who make up another quarter of the electorate, have swung back toward Democrats this cycle.”

The campaign is largely being fought via advertising from the candidates, organizations run by congressional leaders, and super PACS. The candidates themselves are running some positive advertising, but most of the messages seek to undermine one of the candidates.

“Both candidates are currently getting hammered by ads painting them as out-of-touch politicians. Republicans are hitting Moskowitz over his prolific stock trading, while Democrats have targeted Singer for a controversial real estate development plan in Boca Raton,” Covey wrote. “But while the barrage of GOP ads may have kept Moskowitz from opening up a larger lead, the race doesn’t appear to have tightened, so we’re shifting it.”

The South Florida shift was among 11 House races The Cook Political Report moved, all in the direction of Democrats.

Based on Friday’s changes, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shows 185 House districts as solid Democratic, 17 as likely Democratic, and 12 as lean Democratic.

It shows 171 districts as solid Republican, 16 as likely Republican, and 13 as lean Republican.

Another 21 districts are toss-ups.

One South Florida toss-up district remains: the 22nd, where Republican Casey Askar of Naples faces Democrat Pia Dandiya of Palm Beach Gardens.

The 22nd District includes Weston and Parkland in western Broward, picks up Wellington and Loxahatchee Groves in central Palm Beach County along with the Glades communities near Lake Okeechobee. It also extends west through the Everglades to Marco Island near Naples, ending along the Gulf Coast.

On Oct. 8, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, moved the Moskowitz-Singer contest to “leans Democratic.”

Another prominent independent analyst, Inside Elections, lists Moskowitz-Singer as one of 18 toss-up contests.

In September, the Fox News Power Rankings moved the Moskowitz-Singer race from toss-up to “lean D.”

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